Opinion Piece: The future where everyone stays at home is already here

Experts predict a repeat of the scenario of the global financial crisis in 2008, while some industries are already showing a much more significant decline. What will the future be like when everyone stays at home in quarantine? What businesses can survive and earn in such conditions, and who should prepare for the worst? I'll try to answer this terrifying question in today's article. 

With the coronavirus, everything becomes tougher than it was supposed to be when it was just a "Chinese story". According to some indicators, the economic situation is comparable to the last global financial crisis in 2008. The global economic downturn is already visible in the countries most affected by the outbreak. For example, in China, manufacturing and services activity declined sharply.

The decline in production is comparable to the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008. But the reduction in services seems more significant, reflecting the large impact of social distancing that is characteristic of the epidemic. Global supply and demand for cargo (such as construction materials) also fell, as during the most acute phase of the global financial crisis. It is interesting that such a decline in the economy has not been observed in any of the recent epidemics.

I suggest that we think about what the world will look like if the story of people being quarantined at home drags on for a long time.

1. Golden time for bloggers

Golden time for game developers, YouTubers, and content producers.

This is evidenced by a sharp increase in interest in video games among US residents. Now they try to spend more time at home, and all the money that was previously spent on going to the movies or meeting friends goes to pay for subscriptions or buy game items. Honestly, I've bought Battlefield 5 on sale ) 

At the same time, it is clear that this is a dark time for the event industry and everything related to travel. According to estimates of the authoritative International air transport Association( IATA), due to the coronavirus, air carriers around the world will lose between 63 and 113 billion in 2020.

2. Food and catering manufacturers

This is a good time for major food and convenience manufacturers, as well as those who deliver them. Sunday Lee, chief marketing officer for major wholesale retailer OCM Group USA, says there has been a surge in sales of rice and instant food in recent days and does not rule out a shortage. 

"Establishments that DO not provide personal delivery services will suffer the most their losses can reach up to 50%. Restaurants that have it will lose half as much about 20-25%, according to the nytimes.com."

3. The development of the cargo drones

A new round of development of cargo drones will begin. Because, in fact, this is the same courier who does not get sick and does not get tired. So there is every reason to say that this niche will begin to grow and develop rapidly.

In the first months, we saw increased demand for drones and have already sold more than 4,000," says the co-founder of XAG, a major agricultural drone manufacturer based in the southern city of Guangzhou, China.

The company's revenue is expected to grow at least four times this year, to 30 million yuan ($4.31 million).

4. The development of services to provide remote work

There are very good opportunities for high-quality growth in the entire field of remote work. These are payments, online meeting tools (ZOOM), virtual data rooms vdr-usa.info, freelance platforms, and control tools of varying degrees of obsession.

Everyone who can afford to go to" delete has already moved, including Google, Amazon, Facebook, and even the UN Secretariat. Of course, there will be an increase in activity in social networks.

5. Development of the VR industry

During the epidemic, there are good opportunities for the development of the VR industry. Anything that can't be visited physically, you may want to visit virtually.

For example, the largest crypto conference in the world, Consensus, will be held in VR this year, which will be a new experience not only for the organizers themselves, but also for the participants of the event.

6. Home fitness

Everything related to home or near-home fitness will also grow: apps, video tutorials, simulators, and all sorts of attributes for classes. If you can not go to the gym, then you need to figure out how to maintain the shape of the house or in deserted places on the street.

NY Times has already very aptly recommended the 7 best home fitness apps. And shares of the manufacturer of exercise bikes Peloton are going up against the background of a general fall.

7. Black time for the event industry and tourism

As for tourism, according to estimates of the world business travel Association, the scale of losses in this industry can be up to 47 billion per month. According to one of the portal's experts, "for the first time since the global economic crisis, the constant growth of passenger traffic will decrease by 5% for the first time in 2020. In the near future, this figure will grow to 10-12%."

But here you need to make an adjustment that the entire economy will sink, which means that the receipts for advertising will sink. For example, Loop Capital Markets analyst Rob Sanderson estimates that Google's advertising revenue in the travel segment will fall by 15% year on-year in the first quarter, and by 20% in the second quarter due to a coronavirus outbreak.

Needham analysts Laura Martin and Dan Medina forecast lower ad spending in segments such as travel, retail, consumer goods and entertainment, which account for about 30-45% of Facebook's total revenue.

8. Insurance industry

The insurance industry will partially grow. All the same, the production of essential goods requires a certain number of employees, just like the police, doctors, etc. All these people will be insured against infection, this is still a significant number of people.

The US insurance companies have already started offering insurance services against COVID-19 coronavirus. On the other hand, this will be offset by a drop in travel insurance.