Cup for the big boys

Who’d have thought that the FA Cup would experience a 21st Century renaissance?

Last season the competition caught the public’s imagination and I predict the same thing will happen in 2006 as well.

Why the sudden upturn in fortunes for the world’s oldest knock-out competition? Because the Premiership is quite mundane. Look at the facts – Chelsea will run away with the title again. I’d say it’ll be done and dusted by the end of January. The top three are quite settled. We all know what’s going to happen, season after season.

Every fan around the country loves an upset, and that’s one of the reasons why people are looking towards the FA Cup. Clubs are responding to the surge in interest in the right fashion, too – many clubs have lowered their ticket prices for certain FA Cup matches in order to sell out their grounds.

As the third round approaches punters will be tempted to try to pick a long-priced winner but I think it’s a waste of time looking outside the Premiership. For me, the top-flight clubs will be simply too strong for the rank outsiders. The list of recent winners backs up this theory – Premiership sides, and in particular the Big Three of Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United, have dominated the competition in recent years.

Some fans will point to my old club Millwall reaching the final in 2004 as a sign of why the Championship clubs should fancy their chances. But they got unbelievably lucky with the draw. They played Sunderland in the semi-final, for goodness sake! Things worked out very well for them – they didn’t meet a single Premiership side on route to Cardiff.

Beyond the Big Three

But it won’t happen again. If I were looking for a winner at this stage, I’d go on one of the Premiership sides just outside the Big Three – Tottenham Hotspur, or a team of their status. I believe those teams will make a concerted effort to win the competition because it represents their best chance for silverware this season.

I love scanning through the fixtures on FA Cup weekends and I don’t mind backing odds-on in those kinds of matches. If I find a Premiership side with an odds-on price against a lower-league team then I often do my research and it can be worth a bet. I’d much rather back at odds-on in those situations than, say, take somebody like Real Madrid at odds-on to beat strong opponents such as Lyon in the Champions League. Beating the odds compilers is hard enough at the best of times, but if you do your research in the FA Cup you can find value.

These days, you’re not necessarily betting against the odds compilers – you may be using the exchanges instead. We all know the exchanges have had a phenomenal effect on sports punting, and the likes of Betbubbles and Betdaq really do give you useful options when you are Betting on Football.

I started using them when they first came on the scene five years ago. A lot of people putting up prices at that time weren’t doing their homework and the pro gamblers – or just very good bettors – came on and cleaned up. It has actually got harder to find an edge over the years because people putting up bets are now more astute. But it’s still a vital weapon in your betting armoury.

Hedging your bets

I feel they give you extra protection because if you fancy a team, but are not sure if they can win the game, you can lay them on the exchanges. By doing that you’re effectively getting two bets for the price of one. If Newcastle United are playing away at Sunderland, and you reckon Newcastle might do OK but you don’t know whether they’ll win, but you’re pretty sure that Sunderland won’t win, then you can lay Sunderland. It just gives you that bit of extra value if you get a good price.

A couple of times, when backing a team, a refereeing decision or an own goal has cost me money. The team I’ve fancied has played really well but they’ve ended up drawing and I’ve lost my money. Nothing is more annoying than that. That why the exchanges are so useful.

I don’t understand why people say it’s difficult to use the exchanges to viagra buy. For someone like my mum, who has never placed a bet in her life, it would be impossible but if you’re a gambler, and you know how betting works, it’s simple. The odds are a bit more complicated because the fractions of percentages are so small, but that’s easy to pick up.

However, I am selective about when I use the exchanges. I tend to lay teams at around evens because that way your liabilities are relatively small. It becomes dangerous when you lay the away team at around 5.0 (4/1) or 6.0 (5/1). In those circumstances, using the exchanges is riskier because you are getting little return for a big potential outlay.

It’s great to have the options, though – gamblers have never had it so good!